Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: positive announcements are issued from different nations. Considerable effort is allocated on containing particular approaches. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from across the border, a capacity enabled by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to intercept incoming aerial threats roared overhead – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: multiple launches targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably supplied through Western nations. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly gives way to grim resignation: perhaps the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a heavy machine gun engaged a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly imported technology. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: several casualties, destruction and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a need that regional partners are clearly incapable to replace in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from Washington provoked deep reactions, debate and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from Washington follows the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This trend will, certainly, persist.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame certain parties of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration functions according to a principle familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House believes that it is impossible to force Russia to abandon the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does nothing to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from believing that the situation will not change more in its favour in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding civilians and areas but averting a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: personal goals to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not switch to internal issues. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to eliminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new plans based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on continued Western support.
