It was two months ago when the Villa attacker was standing on the pitch at Sunderland, looking confused as Unai Emery scolded him for failing to anticipate a through-ball. At that point, with the team failed to win in six, it wasn't clear if Rogers' form were a symptom or the source of the side's wider issues.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
On Sunday, though, the sideline response was entirely far more favourable. When Rogers drilled in his second strike to reclaim Villa's lead, Emery discarded his coat, spread his arms and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club continued to a 10th successive win , after failing to win any of their first six matches, find themselves a mere three points off pace-setters Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Genuine Title Contenders?
It remains a rather hard question to answer. History, the traditional standing of Villa, suggests not. Additionally, their performances haven't been wholly dominant during this run, while the wins have piled up.
According to statistical analysis, on just two occasions have Villa registered an xG more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a club which has put together 10 in a row, the Villans appear curiously susceptible – however right now the margins are swinging for them.
The Reliant Strategy
The current approach seems to be to exchange chances with rivals and then rely on their talisman to save the day with a couple of precise efforts. It happened away to Leeds, it happened in London, and again against Manchester United.
The initial strike originated from a superb shot, arced just inside the post from a wide position. The follow-up goal proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of the opener capitalizing on a setup by his strike partner.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, the opponents had more efforts and more efforts on goal. Villa have won each of their last eight by the narrowest of margins. They’ve conceded in all except one of those games.
A reversion to average might be the most significant challenge they have to face over the coming weeks. The forward, in all likelihood, cannot maintain drilling his shots past despairing goalkeepers week in, week out.
Reasons for Optimism
Maybe there exists another reality where, rather than luck running out, performances begin to trend towards results. Important figures could still find their top level.
- Ollie Watkins might resume adding to his goal tally.
- The attacking talent may rediscover the performer he showed at Borussia Dortmund.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres will eventually regain fitness, strengthening a periodically leaky backline.
Perhaps there is in that the possibility of a genuine bid, yet it seems unlikely can persist in leaning entirely on a single individual.
Relishing the Unlikely
But then, nobody expected this. It seemed improbable the team would occupy in the top three for the holidays. And without a doubt earlier this season, few could imagine Rogers by the end of the year would be spearheading a hunt for the title while establishing himself as a crucial England player.
This remarkable period should be enjoyed for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. When Rogers faced the Villa faithful when the game ended leading the celebrations, he appeared to be relishing every moment. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells are uncommon in the sport and should be relished.
